In May, at 0.35 million barrels per day (Mb/d), Iranian exports fell by 74% compared with April and by 79% compared with their average level in 2025 (1.7 Mb/d).
Iran is not the only country affected: with the exception of the Sultanate of Oman, whose geographical position makes it less dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, the countries of the Persian Gulf have seen their exports decline:
| 2025 | May 2026 | Change | |
| Iran | 1.7 | 0.350 | -79.4% |
| Kuwait | 2.5 | 0.56 | -77.6% |
| Iraq | 4 | 2.9 | -27.5% |
| Saudi Arabia | 8.1 | 5.9 | -27.2% |
| United Arab Emirates | 3.1 | 2.6 | -16.1% |
| Oman | 0.775 | 0.821 | +5.9% |
2025 and May 2026 figures expressed in million barrels per day (Mb/d)
The Gulf Countries: Major Players in Global Oil Production
In 2025, 14.94 million barrels per day (Mb/d) of crude oil transited through the Strait of Hormuz, representing approximately 34% of global seaborne crude oil trade.
Alternative transport routes exist to bypass Hormuz: Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline linking Abqaiq to Yanbu can carry between 5 and 7 million barrels per day; Abu Dhabi’s pipeline between Habshan and Fujairah has a capacity of 1.8 million barrels per day; finally, Iran’s Goreh-Jask pipeline can transport 300,000 barrels per day.
These alternative infrastructures, with a combined capacity of approximately 8.8 Mb/d, cannot compensate for the roughly 20 million barrels per day (crude oil + refined products/condensates) that normally transit through Hormuz.
The Main Beneficiaries: The United States and Russia
While the Gulf states are bearing the brunt of the conflict and maritime traffic disruptions, U.S. and Russian exports are rising significantly.
In May 2026:
- U.S. exports of crude oil and refined petroleum products reached 10.5 Mb/d, making the United States the world’s leading oil exporter for the third consecutive month; in 2025, they averaged 6.6 Mb/d.
- Russian exports ranked second worldwide, at 7 Mb/d, compared with an average of 5.8 Mb/d in 2025.
Sources:
– The Petrodollar Order Under Pressure | SPF
– Saudi Arabia cuts oil output 20% to 8 million bpd | Reuters
– OPEC – Gulf International Forum
– Reserve Depletion Exposes Kuwait to Oil Demand Risks | Baker Institute
– Oman Crude Oil Production | CEIC
– Oman Output Set at 821,000 bpd | Oman Observer
– Crude Oil Production for Qatar | St. Louis Fed
– The United States Becomes the World’s Leading Exporter | Energy News Beat
