According to the OECD Economic Outlook published in March, global GDP growth is projected to slow to 2.9% in 2026 before picking up to 3.0% in 2027.
In the United States, annual GDP growth is expected to moderate, declining from 2.0% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027.
In the euro area, GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.8% in 2026, due to rising energy prices, before recovering to 1.2% in 2027, supported by increased defence spending. In France, after growth of 0.9% in 2025, the OECD expects a slight decline to 0.8% in 2026, followed by a modest rebound to 1.0% in 2027. In the United Kingdom, after a contraction of 0.5% in 2026, the OECD forecasts a strong recovery to 1.3% in 2027.
In China, after two years of stable growth at 5% in 2024 and 2025, growth is expected to ease to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027.
Across G20 countries, inflation is expected to be 1.2 percentage points higher than previously projected in 2026, reaching 4.0%, before declining to 2.7% in 2027.
| 2025 | 2026 (Forecast) | 2027 (Forecast) | |
| World | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3 |
| G20 | 3.3 | 3 | 3 |
| United-States | 2.1 | 2 | 1.7 |
| China | 5 | 4.4 | 4.3 |
| Germany | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| France | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1 |
| United Kingdom | 1.3 | – 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Italy | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Japon | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Australia | 2 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Canada | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| India | 7.6 | 6.1 | 6.4 |
| Russia | 1 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
Source :– OECD (2026), OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March 2026: Resilience under stress, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/b961ba49-fr.
